Skywatch Friday January 27, 2012

Posted on January 27, 2012 by

The weather synopsis for the next three days for Central VA. A strong cold front will push across the area today from West to East through the morning and into the afternoon. Heavy precipitation and strong thunderstorms are possible as it moves across the state. By this evening, the front should be offshore and in it’s place a high pressure system will develop and control the weather for the weekend, bringing with it seasonal temperatures and no precipitation chances through Monday.

The above photo is a 360 degree view of the sky this morning from my front driveway in Chester, VA near the Enon Volunteer Fire Station. If it does not load correctly, you can view it here: http://360.io/KWGy8u. We had some early morning thunderstorms move across the area and I picked up 0.20 inches of rain with a peak wind gust of 16 mph this morning at 2:15 AM.

This post is supporting Skywatch Friday. If you would like to join the site, feel free to visit, http://skyley.blogspot.com for more information.

-- Weather When Posted --

  • Temperature: 68°F;
  • Humidity: 59%;
  • Heat Index: 68°F;
  • Wind Chill: 68°F;
  • Pressure: 29.54 in.;

Posted in Media, Photography, Skywatch Friday | Tagged , , , , | 4 Comments

Upgrade to dual polarization radar

Posted on January 25, 2012 by
dual polarization radar

Upgrade to dual polarization radar

Dual polarization radar installation February 20th to March 2nd at NWS Wakefield. The wakefield nws radar…kakq…will undergo the upgrade dual polarization staring February 20th. Installation will take up to ten days and will result in the weather radar data being unavailable for much of that period. The Wakefield NWS radar should be back online by March 2nd.

During this down time…surrounding nexrad radars will be available for coverage. Surrounding nexrad radars include Fort Dix NJ…KDIX…Sterling VA…KLWX…and Wakefield VA…KAKQ. Terminal doppler radars located at Andrews AFB…TADW and Philadelphia…TPHL also service the local area providing additional coverage.

For an introduction to dual polarization radar browse to the warning decision training branch web site at…
http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/courses/dualpol/outreach/index.html

-- Weather When Posted --

  • Temperature: 51°F;
  • Humidity: 54%;
  • Heat Index: 51°F;
  • Wind Chill: 51°F;
  • Pressure: 30.24 in.;

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ABC World News – Weather FAIL! (Updated)

Posted on January 24, 2012 by

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And there was no warning! Did she really just say that. Everyone has been talking about this system about 48 hours out. It’s not like the South does not know about tornadoes, but I understand in the middle of winter this is something that does not happen that often but it does happen. The average lead time for all this tornadoes was around 20 to 30 minutes, which is really great.

I know that she is just reading what other people wrote but they called the NWS office in Birmingham, AL for their take on the watches and warnings process, and was told that the average time for a warning for the cells was 30 minutes and the produce read that back to the forecaster to make sure it was correct. After all that they still go on the air with the report of no warning, and then people wonder why they don’t trust weather people.

It is a proven fact that weather radios will save lives, I have two in my house with back-up batteries on all the time. We are never caught off guard by the weather. If I am out I have the iMap weather radio so when I am away from the house I still have a direct connection to my weather radio. I grant you that the weather radios are still controlled by polygons and may not be near your area, but still a warning is better than nothing.

I never watch the main stream media and only watch the local news when severe weather is in Virginia but this is an insult to all people who are involved in weather. You have pissed a lot of people off that were covering this outbreak starting on Saturday and really need to get your facts straight. If you want to complain you can find Diane Sawyer on twitter and send her a direct message. I know she will never read them, but it might help.

Update to this story:

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After James Spann went on twitter and weatherbrains to complain about the story this is the follow-up report that aired on ABC World News last night (January 24, 2012). Do you think they covered it right this time?

-- Weather When Posted --

  • Temperature: 37°F;
  • Humidity: 93%;
  • Heat Index: 37°F;
  • Wind Chill: 37°F;
  • Pressure: 30.3 in.;

Posted in Local News, Media, National | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment

The roller coaster will continue

Posted on January 19, 2012 by
18Z GFS 850mb Temps and SLP Fri 02-03-12

18Z GFS 850mb Temps and SLP Fri 02-03-12

If you like a warm winter then this one is starting to be your kind of winter. Sure we will have days of below freezing temperatures to start your day off with but give it about 24 hours and then next morning your low temperature will be the high from the previous day. People are talking about the NAO going positive or negative and will be changing the pattern and the winter will be cold later on. Right now that is the case with the current pattern but there are a lot of factors that have to fall into place for a major pattern shift.

Right now I say enjoy the warm winter because I think this one will come to kick us in the butt around March or April. That’s when we will see the snowfall that everyone is waiting for. Temperatures this week will be in the 50′s for daytime highs and in the upper 30′s for overnight lows. Throw in a couple of rain chances and that wraps up the rest of the month weather wise. The start of February does look to be on the cold side, but time will tell.

-- Weather When Posted --

  • Temperature: 42°F;
  • Humidity: 51%;
  • Heat Index: 42°F;
  • Wind Chill: 36°F;
  • Pressure: 30.01 in.;

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What’s up with the temps for January?

Posted on January 11, 2012 by

18Z GFS 850mb Surface and Temp for Saturday

18Z GFS 850mb Surface and Temp for Saturday

As I write this we are in the middle of a downpour at the weather observer headquarters in Enon, VA. It’s currently 52 degrees outside and no windchill to speak off. Picked up 0.31 inches of rain since this morning and not a snowflake in sight. We do have a cold front moving into the area on Friday that if it had arrived yesterday we would see about a foot of snow on the ground now. That is the way this winter is shaping up.

18Z GFS 850mb GFS Surface and Temp

18Z GFS 850mb GFS Surface and Temp


Right now the timing is really off on the precipitation moving into the area and the arctic air that is needed for snow. The blocking to the North is not pushing the cold air into the area that is need for the arctic blast like we had last year. The attached model of the GFS is about as close to the wintry stuff that we will come in the next couple of weeks. The precipitation is in place and the cold air is right on our back door but not in place. This is forecast to be one of the warmer winters on record.

18Z GFS 850mb Temps and Surface Pressure

18Z GFS 850mb Temps and Surface Pressure


What is different about this season is that areas in the South will probably see more snow than we will. Hobbs, New Mexico picked up around 11 inches of snow this past week and Abilene, Texas my neck of the woods picked up some of the white stuff too. Take a look at the map to the left and see that next week a block of cold air settles over the Texas/New Mexico border and we sit under a block of warm air. I really don’t think this is normal for this time of year, but it is happening.

Like I said earlier this week if you want a cold white winter this is not going to be your year. The blocking to the North is not pushing the area to the South like we need to see for snow, and the cold air will not stick around for long. The cold temperatures will last for a couple of days and then back to seasonal or above seasonal temperatures. This is how the winter is starting out, will it stay that way only time will tell.

-- Weather When Posted --

  • Temperature: 53°F;
  • Humidity: 96%;
  • Heat Index: 53°F;
  • Wind Chill: 49°F;
  • Pressure: 29.63 in.;

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End of the year roundup…

Posted on January 5, 2012 by
Sunset in the backyard

Sunset in the backyard

Well all the data from the weather station is in from 2011. We had a lot of different things happen, from a hurricane making land to snowfall of 4 to 6 inches. Summer was a little warm and the threat of severe weather was still in season. Over all not a bad year weather wise. Lots to write about and to post about but here are the numbers from my personal weather station in the backyard.

Mean temperature: 62.1
High temperature: 100.8 on 7/22/11
Low temperature: 21.7 on 2/12/11
Rain fall total: 43.74 inches

The winds I could not report because there was a glitch in the data that shows a wind gust of 463 with I know did not happen. The highest wind gust reported was 67 during the landfall of Irene. Now that 2011 is over with, lets see what 2012 will bring us. So far we have the lowest temperatures of the season this year with a chance of a major rain event next week. Still too warm for the snow so a big change from this time last year.

Thanks to everyone that added content to the site and visited and lets keep the trend going for 2012.

-- Weather When Posted --

  • Temperature: 49°F;
  • Humidity: 32%;
  • Heat Index: 49°F;
  • Wind Chill: 47°F;
  • Pressure: 30.01 in.;

Posted in Forecast Center, Local News, Observations | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment